Hello followers and other TradingView users!
Let’s start to break down step-by-step the Bitcoin’ chart – what we got from the last month and what we expect from this week!
After the very messy and tough August, we got a decent candle close which will indicate some movements upwards! The monthly candle was almost(!!) “Hammer” candlestick pattern, almost because if we want to see a correct “Hammer” then the body has to be 1/3 from the entire candle but at the moment the body is, let’s say 1/2.5. So, not the correct one BUT at least we got a monthly close above the round number which is $7000. When we combine these two things then we got a pretty solid candle close given that difficult month!
We ended the August pretty well and we got a strong bullish candle from last week and it closed between the two strong resistance area $7286-$7349. Currently, on the weekly chart, we could see that we have found a resistance from the EMA50! So, at the moment on the weekly chart if we want to go higher levels we have to see a breakout from the strong resistance levels and we need to manage to break above the 50EMA which works as a resistance!
On the daily chart , we could see that the yesterday’s candle was of a very high volume and we tried to break through the historically strong resistance levels which are $7286 and $7349. Bulls managed to hold the price at least above the one strong resistance level which is a good sign and overall the bulls managed to hold the candle and the day on the plus side! Currently, we trade above the 50 and 100EMA and if we look above us then the 200EMA is exactly on our target area which is $7500!
On the 4h chart, we could see that yesterday we tried to push the price above the strong area and we even touched $7430 but the bulls can’t hold the price above those levels and after the 4h candle close we go a “Gravestone Doji”/”Shooting Star” candlestick pattern which indicate bearishness but luckily the bulls catch the bears momentum and we didn’t drop much after this candle! It shows that at the moment there are buyers who own control over the market!
Currently, the price is between the trendline which is pulled from wicks since 09.08.2018 and strong resistance area . Soon, we will get another move because the area between those levels is so small and we could make a “breakout” from either direction but the pressure is above because we have a death cross on the 4h chart (a 100EMA is above the 200EMA) and this small area between those levels looks like an Ascending Triangle (bull-ISH pattern)!
…and now the resistances/targets above us:
As You already know from my previous topics, my target is $7500, why:
* Fibonacci retracement 62% pulled from 24.07-14.08
* Round number
* Trendline since 05.05 (pulled from bodies)
* Fibonacci extensions (entry point Fibonacci’s)
* Round number and Fibonacci retracement level are just SO identical!
* 200EMA on the daily timeframe works as a resistance
This is the level where I want to see a new price action and from there I can change my short-term bullish bias to bearish bias and this area is also a nice sell opportunity if we see a correct bearish price action!
The last down-trendline:
In this area, we could see two last down-trendlines, pulled in the 4h chart:
*Lower – The last down-trendline from the BODIES
*Higher -The last down-trendline from the WICKS
Definitely, those are my main criteria’s. If we got a breakout from those trendlines then my bias stays bullish , IF we got a bearish price action from there then my bias turns into bearish!
Currently, I have a bullish bias till $7500-$7600 because we have several good signs that we might go higher than the current price. Definitely watch the round number area $7500 and definitely watch the trendlines!
Hopefully, this helps You out a little bit to confirm Your own analysis! DEFINITELY, make Your own research!!
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Have a nice week!
Let’s talk a little bit about the current pullback possibilities. At the moment the price is above the minor trendline which is pulled from the wicks. It makes for us an uptrend channel, the price may go inside this channel and the first bigger retest area/support is around $7,000 there is also the Fibonacci retracement 62% and the May low which works as a support.
In the four-hour chart, we could see that the 50 EMA starts to work as a support in this area. If it drops lower, then our next support is around $6767 which is historically worked level and there is also our last trendline. This has to hold us, if not then we go definitely test the lower levels.
Sorry for the mess on the chart but concentrate and You will understand 😉
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Slowly we start to pick up some volume and currently the price attempt to make a breakout from the triangle!
Resistances: Triangle upper trendline and the horizontal resistance at $7286!
If we get a close above the $7330 then it would be a confirmation to another leg upwards!
We have a confirmation – breakout from the triangle – but this is just a small sign that the price may go higher because this is 1h chart. Better would be 4h candle close above the triangle!