In this idea post, I’d like to share my thoughts about Bitcoin’ price levels. Currently, we are really on the edge and the price is ready to crack below the important supports. In this post, You can find some ‘semi-bearish’ confirmation and full-bearish confirmation price levels + semi-bullish confirmation and full bullish confirmation price levels. Let’s start!
Bearish confirmation areas:
Currently, we are truly on the edge and ready to make a break below the important support levels and below some important price action criteria which should act as support levels.
The light-red area:
1. The price is fallen below the round number $4,000 with a pretty powerful candle.
2. If the price breaks below the black support line which is pulled since 25. Nov. and tried to draw it from as many wicks as possible to sort out the fakeouts and bear traps which should give us strong trendline as a support level . If the price breaks below and gets a 1H or 4H candle close below it (stronger confirmation comes after the 4H candle close) then we are on the danger area.
We have a break below the counter trendline and from my latest idea post You can find what happens when the counter trendline breaks, especially, when the down pressure is very strong – I would say that this could be nasty. This leaves us only the one support area , the gray area. Luckily it is pretty strong and to make a breakout from there it needs a strong selling power. Be cautious(!) because there are not so hard to find the bearish pressure, because the overall trend is massively down, one strong bearish candle and the market is on the panic mode! After a break below the gray area we are on the red box…
Red box – full bearish confirmation area:
1. Break below the counter trendline
2. Break below the strong support level – gray area
3. New LL (lower low)
4. This bigger channel would be also a continuation pattern Bearish Flag and this chart pattern will confirm movement downwards!
Bearish summary: Firstly, be alerted when You see that the price is on the light-red area, from there, the price may drop very quickly. I repeat myself – be alerted!
If You see that the price are below the gray area then from there the bad things should start again. Next minor support levels are the light-blue line and the $3,500 but actually, currently it is very hard to say do those levels hold the price AGAIN or are those levels empty from buyers!
Let’s end this idea post with the bullish confirmation areas.
Actually, a first small bullish confirmation comes after the round number break. If the price gets a close above the $4,000 then it would be the first tiny bullish confirmation because the bounce came from the strong trendline and from the minor trendline crossing area (minor trendline is the small channel downwards). This leads us on the free area until the small channel upper trendline should act as a resistance + there are several timeframes EMA’s and they should also act as a resistance. So, a pretty strong area but if the price breaks above it, only then we are in the light-green area. Let’s count the mentioned area bullish criteria:
+ Still above the counter trendline
+ It made a new higher low
+ Above the round number $4,000
+ Breakout from the down channel
+ Break above some strong EMA’s
This area is light green because from there, we can say that (if the bounce comes from the current price level $3,980) the price made a higher low and POSSIBLY it is ready to make more breakouts to make new higher high.
To make new higher high we have to get a close around the green box. Green box bullish criteria:
+ New HH (higher high) area. It is good from the price action structure and it is needed for mid-term bullishness
+ We are above the strong trendline , pulled from 30. March second touch 24. June. (it has acted as a very strong resistance level )
+ We are above the gray area/strong resistance area at $4,150-$4,200.
Bullish Summary: Firstly, to be on the confirmed bullish area we have to fight with so heavy resistance and we have to fight with those levels with a low bullish volume inside the candles. This looks like impossible but let’s take this step-by-step and confirmation after confirmation.
As said before, the price is truly on the edge and ready to make a bearish confirmation breakout any time soon but before it has not happened it’s not confirmed!!!
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All the best!
*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
A possible continuation chart pattern “Bear Flag” on the 15 min. chart.
This will be another bearish confirmation if we get a close inside the light-red area.
And it will be also a bullish confirmation which leads us above the $4k level if we get a candle close above the orange channel and above the $4k at the same time!
ALERT! We are in the light-red area!
Below the counter trendline and we have a break below the bear flag, the possible drop may come soon!
We got it and a pretty quick drop down to the red area (below the gray level). First stop should be the green ‘circle’. Down channel bottom trendline should act as a support and there is also the first fractal. So those two makes a crossing area and they should stop the price for a while. Can’t expect a bounce from there but never know, depends on the price action!