The crypto world has been so focused at comparing the current bear market to the 2014/2015 cycle, that has neglected to look into another bearish cycle. Bitcoin’s very first one from June to November 2011.
Of course the duration then was much quicker as Bitcoin was in its first steps towards becoming what it is today, and due to the short horizon can be considered a flash crash. But relative to Bitcoin’s life span we have categorized it as a cycle.
We see astonishing similarities:
1. The logarithmic rise that led to both Highs was performed on three stages, each involving a pull back of similar % rise to the top. See the resemblance
2011/2012 pull back sequence: A. +2000%, B. +950% C. +467%
2018/2019 pull back sequence: A. +2128%, B. +957% C. +549%
2. Following the Highs each cycle formed a Triangle pattern that eventually collapsed upon its completion (we are currently on this phase for the 2018/2019 cycle). In 2011 that declined -55.70% before rising again and follow a long candle sequence towards the cycle’s bottom. So far on the 2018/2019 cycle, the price has declined -50%, so we assume there is room for a little more.
According to the above parameters, this study assumes that BTCUSD will currently extend the decline around -93.60% to reach the cycle’s bottom near 1,250.
The above is of course based on the extreme speculation that the 2011/2012 cycle is a small image of the current situation. As already mentioned, the current (2018/2019) time frame is much longer/ wider than Bitcoin’s first (flash) crash.
If you want a framework for comparison, see our study on the 2014/2015 bear cycle comparison:
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