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As I mentioned in my previous analysis (previous analysis is below the post): we get a bearish confirmation after we have seen a 4H or Daily candle close below the major counter trendline . It has happened! The price falls below the strong areas like a warm knife through the butter and firstly it got a 1H candle close below the counter and now we have 4H candle confirmation. The prementioned strong areas and now the price is below of them:
– Both bigger EMA’s 100&200
– Previous resistance level around $3,900 which had to act as a support level
– The counter trendline which had to act as a support.
Luckily I manage to notice this fall pretty early from the 15 min. chart where I made an “ALERT” post and after that, the price smashed those levels.
Currently, the 4H candle made a stop (definitely can’t say that it has found support) at the $3,800 level which is around the previous short-term higher low (HL). There is also the Fibonacci perfect retracement level 62% and the several times tested trendline which was resistance and now it becomes support.
After the Bart move, it is very difficult to say where the price may find a support level . The current level WOULD be the spot but I don’t like this counter trendline break . I try to follow the rule that the trend is my friend and currently it breaks below one of the really important price action criterion.
Why I’m suspicious is the mixed signs. The recent rallies and the higher low close from the FIB level will say that it will found a support area around the current price levels but as I said before the counter trendline collapse make me worried. So, if there are so much mixed signs and You don’t know what to do then do not trade. I will wait for further price action and maybe I get another confirmation after the Daily candle close. If it also gets a close below the counter then it would be more certain that I would like to search sell setups.
Also, if we start to fall lower than the previous 4H candle low this would be also a confirmation that the price doesn’t get a bounce soon enough. This is also common that after the Bart move the price often moves sideways before it makes a next decisional move, an accumulation phase.
SUMMARY: there are so much mixed signs that I will recommend do not trade at the moment but I would like to point out some important support levels and if You see rejection from them then You would be prepared:
1. Previous higher low (HL) support level around $3,740
2. The next higher low support bounce from the counter trendline at $3,650
3. The major strong support area $3,550-$3,600. If the price falls lower than this then we might go to pretty low levels!
About rejection, I try to keep You posted if I see a reversal candlestick pattern or some important volume increase some levels!
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Thank You for your support, I really appreciate it!
*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Still haven’t seen any bigger reaction. On the 15 min timeframe we have tested the 62% FIB level several times and got rejected but this is just too small. On the 1H and 4H chart we have also RSI divergence.
Altcoins slowly dying which will indicate that today we don’t see any bigger moves, only downwards maybe!
Do not forget to support me and destroy the “LIKE” button!
We got our first 15 min. candle close below the FIB level at $3,776 and the last 15 min. candle retested the strong area and got a close also below the FIB level. So, basically, this could mean that the pressure has not gone anywhere and this could be a start of the next leg down.
I update You in after the next hourly candle close!
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On the 1H timeframe, we got the sixth rejection from the perfect FIB level. Is this a strong level OR is this preparation for the next move. Can’t get any information, I just can say that if this level break – $3,775 – on the 1H chart then there is a high probability for the next leg. To escape from this the buyers has to push the price above the $3,800 AT LEAST!
Still, the “LIKE” button is alive, KILL IT!!
We got a 1H candle close below the $3775 but this candle was more than $150 long 🙂
Currently, we are on the super-important support level. The magic area at $3,600. It has more than 20 touches either direction (worked as support and as resistance) and only 3 breaks through. So this small bounce from there was expected BUT if we get a close below of it then we go test the last years bottom.
Today we smashed the counter trendline and also some other strong support levels and I think from here it’s a perfect level to retest those and get a small pump upwards. Bias is definitely down but I think we go and retest some higher levels, the counter trendline retest would be too much to ask but $3,740-$3,800 is doable!
I saw that the “Like” button blinked an eye, so it is still alive KILL IT! 😀