Since this year’s bottom on December 15. Bitcoin’ price has made a rally upwards. Yes, now we can call it a rally because the growth is 25% from the bottom to the peak!
Yesterday, I forecasted a throwback and I forecasted a support area at $3,650. The bounce came exactly from the $3,650 and slowly we can start to decide where the price may go and where it wants to go.
My bets are on the blue area – $3,570-$3,631. So, this means that at first, we have to come down a little bit. On the night, the price has found a support from the $3,650 but the bounce was not so convincing and that’s why I think we go one more time a little bit downwards and another take off would be from the blue area.
The blue area is the strongest are on the chart around the current levels. It has 20 touches – 18 rejection (it has worked 18 times as a support or as resistance) and 2 breakthroughs, down and up.
This is a strong area plus we have some other price action criteria in this price zone which should act as support levels:
– FIB 38% rejection level, pulled from the bottom to the top
– 4H chart EMA100, we don’t have named those EMA supports a very long time but currently, we trade above the EMA100 and it is in the blue area which acts as a support level
– Role reversal, old resistance becomes a support and old LH (lower high) supports the new higher low (HL)
This is almost 100% that if we reach into the blue area the increase of the volume is big. The probability talks massively to the upwards side (bounce from the blue area) but if You want to trade this, use tight stop losses, because if we fall lower than the blue area (candle close below the blue area will confirm bearish price action!!!) then the price action turns into the bearish and Yes, just because we are below this marked area!
After we have touched the blue area and get a rejection from there then the targets would be around $4,000.
The short-term maximum target $4,070
The short-term minimum target $3,875
SUMMARY: Currently, we make a throwback from yesterday’s high/peak and probably we are ready to make another leg upwards after it ends. The current downwards movent has to end around or inside the blue marked area, from there we have to get a solid bounce. The bounce and the bullishness are confirmed after we get a bullish candlestick pattern or a decent candle with high bullish volume inside of it. The bearish confirmation is a candle close below the blue area!!
LONG trades above the blue area and SHORT trades below the blue area
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*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
That was actually god damn fast 🙂
The mentioned targets are reached, let’s see what we get from further action!
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Another great pump upwards and we got a 4H candle close above the $4,000!
Currently, the price has found a little resistance from EMA200 but not any significant bearish signs. So, it may go higher than the current price. I start to call some bearish signs if I see them. The next resistances:
– The strong area at $4,242
– The semi-round number $4,500 and from there, after the 4H candle close or 1H candle close above it, we get a new and the most important higher high candle close. This is really-really good from the price structure perspective!
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Bearish alert, bearish alert! Looks like the throwback has started!
This marked bearish engulfing on the 15 min (candlestick patterns doesn’t work very well on the lower timeframes) is full of bearish volume! This could be a possible mentioned bearish sign and it would get confirmed after 1H candle close below the $4,000!
The last 1H candle is a bearish candlestick pattern Engulfing. It is full of bearish volume from the top but bulls won the battle around the $4,000 – the candle got a close above the $4,000 level. Basically, this shows that bears have started to enter the market so, watch out!
Second 4H candle close below the 200EMA, which gave us a longlegged doji, another bearish sign. Two times rejected from the mentioned EMA and if we start to go lower then the first target would be around $3,638 but still, the $4,000 support has held us strongly – on the 1H and on the 4H chart.
The short should be confirmed after at least 1H candle close below the $4k
On the 15 min. chart You can watch the breakout from the triangle. Not the best confirmation timeframe but from there You can see the first confirmation!
Break below will confirm that bearish view on the 4H timeframe and there we may get some leg down and the breakout upwards will confirm that the FOMO players are on the market and the BTC price will fly higher!