First of all, happy new year to You all! Hopefully, You will have a wonderful year!
Let’s jump straight into the current action!
Around the current price are two strong price levels/areas or criteria, from where we have to search for some confirmations or opportunities.
The main starting point has to be the up-trendline or if we watch it from the bigger structure the major counter trendline which is drawn as a black line. This trendline is very strong and we can discover this if we watch the past action. We have a light-red fake out box below the trendline and this started on 31. December, firstly a strong candle through the counter trendline which should be a pretty strong bearish sign but bulls manage to hold this after the breakout and on 1. January they pushed the price back above the up-trendline and again, with the high volume inside the candle. Those two candles also showing the recent days highest volume . So, from there we can assume – to break this trendline we need power. Before we haven’t seen any power from sellers then this trendline should act as a pretty strong support level and if we watch that thin blue line, just below the black trendline which is EMA100, then it should confirm that this support is strong.
The Plan – the plan should be the trendline retest, the EMA touch, then a rejection upwards from those levels and close above the trendline on the 4H chart. This should show us that the bulls are alerted and they don’t want to see that the price falls lower than this counter trendline . If You see 4H candle close below the black trendline then You should be cautious because as I mentioned, to break this line we need power and if sellers showing up some decent volume then the second attempt to break this trendline may be successful and we could go to the lower levels after that close, yes, we have some decent support levels under the major trendline but You should be careful and You have to search for some confirmations from candlestick patterns from lower support levels if You want to be on the market, those levels are between $3,650-$3,720.
The second important criterion is surprisingly the EMA200 (thin red line above the current price). Lately, it has worked amazingly as a strong resistance level . The price fights with EMA200 on the $4,000 before the Christmas and after that, it is worked three times as a perfect resistance. Plus, at the moment, this 200EMA is on the pretty strong resistance zone between the $3,900 and $4k. There we have some historically strong resistances and the round number should act also as a resistance. The safer bullish confirmation should come after the 4H candle close above the mentioned levels above the $4,000. Then the price has broken above the strong levels and it has made a new short-term higher high compared with 29. Dec. high.
If we get a rejection upwards from now or a bit lower (not after we have a candle close below the major black trendline ) then we can not forget the continuation pattern called Falling Wedge. After we got a close again above the counter trendline on January 1. we made also a breakout upwards from the Falling Wedge . If we look at this from the Falling Wedge perspective then we have a continuation confirmation upwards which will be great if You see a bounce upwards from the trendline (if the price touching it)
To get bullish confirmations, we have two scenarios:
1. Wait for the rejection from counter trendline and from EMA100 and the 4H candle has to close above the black trendline .
2. This is a bit FOMO (fear of missing out) and this is for a bit longer holders than 1 or 2 days but buy should be triggered after You have seen a 4H candle close above the $4,000. Maybe there comes some throwback then You can get it from the better prices.
Bearish confirmation should come after the 4H candle close below the black trendline . The volume has to be with high volume , actually, if it gets a close below the trendline then it IS with high volume but from there You should be cautious.
Please, don’t forget to LIKE, COMMENT & FOLLOW!
Thank You for your support, I really appreciate it!
*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
On the 15 min. chart we have a breakout from the smaller bullish pattern Falling Wedge. Great indication but-but altcoins doesn’t react at all and they are stable – today a bit minus side – and remember, on the smaller timeframes chart patterns and candlestick patterns don’t work as good as they do on the bigger timeframes (4H, Daily and we can count also 1H). So, probably, this little move is a bit fake!
If this is helpful, do not forget to hit the “LIKE”
As mentioned about a fake move, the price slowly makes a correction back downwards. But the possible bounce area after the breakout from the smaller Falling Wedge becomes even stronger. Bounce area from the green circle criteria:
1. The smaller Falling Wedge upper trendline starts to work as a support
2. The major counter trendline (black line) acts as a support level
2+. Those two makes a crossing area which should be a decent support level
3. 1H timeframe EMA 100&200 is on the strong circle and they should act also as a support levels
4. 4H timeframe EMA100 is around that circle!
Wait for rejection(!!) from the circle and the level where we want to see a rejection stays between $3,780-$3,810!
“LIKE” would be amazing 😉
The plan has triggered:
“The Plan – the plan should be the trendline retest, the EMA touch, then a rejection upwards from those levels and close above the trendline on the 4H chart. This should show us that the bulls are alerted and they don’t want to see that the price falls lower than this counter trendline . If You see 4H candle close below the black trendline then You should be cautious because as I mentioned, to break this line we need power and if sellers showing up some decent volume then the second attempt to break this trendline may be successful and we could go to the lower levels after that close, yes, we have some decent support levels under the major trendline but You should be careful and You have to search for some confirmations from candlestick patterns from lower support levels if You want to be on the market, those levels are between $3,650-$3,720.”
Basically, wait for the rejection and if the candle close is below those levels be careful!
We got a 4H candle close below the counter trendline and this means You have to be cautious!!
Currently, we are still on the mentioned bounce area and the only way is a current candle gets a close above the black trendline. This means we are back in the safer area and this trendline still held us. Looks like it has a pretty wide support range 😉
From a bearish perspective, there is formed a small bearish pattern head and shoulders which will be a sign downwards but as I said, be cautious because we are below the trendline BUT we are still on the mentioned bounce area and above the EMA100.
SUMMARY: Immediate rejection upwards on the 4H chart and above the trendline should trigger bull orders and a candle close below the EMA100 should trigger the sell orders!
“LIKE” would be a perfect support 😉