With most bear cycle models showing that Bitcoin is approaching a bottom, it is useful to go back to its original growth pattern. The parabolic curve that has delivered High after High over this decade long time span.

Based on that parabolic pattern we have identified 4 possible growth scenarios leading to the next All Time High using duration and % increase parameters of each cycle.

Scenario (A): High around 53,300. Follows the 2012/2013 Bull Cycle.

This projection suggests that the candle sequence will follow 2012/2013 bullish pattern . High to High measurement 882 days. High estimated for May 2020.

Scenario (B): High around 58,700. Follows the 2015/2017 Bull Cycle.

This projection suggests that the candle sequence will follow 2015/2017 bullish pattern . High to High measurement 1492 days. High estimated for January 2022.

Scenario (C): High around 126,300.

This projection assumes that the High to High sequence increases by +20 bars from the previous one. The June 2011 – November 2013 High to High sequence is measured at 29 bars. The November 2013 – December 2017 is measured at 49 bars. If the next High to High sequence follows this +20 bar pattern then the measurement will be at 69 bars i.e. 2100 days. High estimated for September 2023.

Scenario (D): High around 158,000.

This projection assumes that the High to High sequence increases by +68.96% from the previous one. The June 2011 – November 2013 High to High sequence is measured at 29 bars. The November 2013 – December 2017 is measured at 49 bars, +68.96% of the 29 bars of the previous sequence. If the next High to High sequence follows this +68.96% pattern then the measurement will be at 82 bars i.e. 2496 days. High estimated for October 2024.

Based on a parameter similarity score, the Scenario that appears to be most probable is (B) as its High to High and Low to High measurements are identical to the cycle it immitates.

If you seek more insight on cycle comparisons and projections, see below how we have compared the current Bear Cycle to the 2014/2015 and 2011/2012.

"Is Bitcoin still parabolic? Projections to consider." by trader InvestingScope — published December 15, 2018 — TradingView

"Is Bitcoin still parabolic? Projections to consider." by trader InvestingScope — published December 15, 2018 — TradingView

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